XAU/USD at $4,628 as Iran Submits New Hormuz Proposal, FOMC Decision Tomorrow at 2PM ET Defines Gold’s Entire May Direction
Gold is trading at $4,628 on Tuesday April 28, 2026 — under continued dollar pressure ahead of the most consequential 48 hours in gold markets this quarter. Trading Economics confirms gold remained largely unchanged around $4,700 on Monday before slipping further Tuesday as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach. Two major events will define gold’s direction for all of May: the Federal Reserve rate decision and dot plot tomorrow April 29 at 2:00 PM ET, and Q1 GDP data on Thursday April 30.
Today’s Key Data — April 28, 2026
| Gold Spot Price | $4,628 — $4,671 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $102.73 (+1.02%) |
| FOMC Decision | Tomorrow April 29, 2:00 PM ET |
| Rate Hold Probability | 99.5% (CME FedWatch) |
| Q1 GDP + Claims | Thursday April 30 |
| Key Support | $4,517 (LiteFinance bull pivot) |
| Key Resistance | $4,807 (50-Day SMA) |
| 52-Week Gain | +40.28% (vs April 2025) |
Iran New Hormuz Proposal — Why Gold Is Not Rallying
Iran submitted a new diplomatic proposal through Pakistani mediators this week aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict. The proposal called for extending the ceasefire to allow progress toward a permanent end to hostilities, while deferring nuclear negotiations until the US blockade of the strait is lifted. Hours later, Trump cancelled the planned senior US envoy trip to Islamabad, while Tehran reiterated it would not negotiate under threats or blockade conditions.
The reason gold is not rallying on Iran’s proposal is counterintuitive but important. Investing.com notes that “gold prices rose marginally in Asian trade on Tuesday but remained largely rangebound as markets parsed mixed signals.” Despite the diplomatic development, non-yielding bullion remains under pressure because elevated inflation from the Hormuz blockade keeps the Fed from cutting rates — which strengthens the dollar and reduces gold’s appeal. Oil above $100 keeps inflation elevated, which paradoxically keeps the Fed hawkish, which is short-term bearish for gold.
The FOMC Dot Plot — The Only Number That Matters Tomorrow
The Fed will hold rates at 3.50–3.75% tomorrow with 99.5% certainty. That is not the event. The event is the updated Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot. In January, the median FOMC member projected one rate cut in 2026. The critical question: will that one remaining cut survive the March-April inflation and energy shock?
Three possible outcomes and their implications for gold:
Scenario 1 — Dovish: Cuts Retained (1–2 cuts in dot plot)
Dollar weakens. Gold recovers above $4,738–$4,807 resistance zone. Post-FOMC target: $4,807–$4,912. Probability: 35%.
Scenario 2 — Neutral: One Cut Unchanged
Gold stabilizes at $4,517–$4,694 range. GDP Thursday becomes next catalyst. Weak GDP (below 2.0%) triggers bull reversal. Probability: 40%.
Scenario 3 — Hawkish: All Cuts Removed
Dollar surges. Gold tests LiteFinance bull pivot at $4,517 and 200-Day SMA at $4,494. Maximum buy zone for medium-term positions. GDP Thursday April 30 becomes the reversal catalyst. Probability: 25%.
Kevin Warsh and the Fed Succession
This is Powell’s final FOMC press conference before his term expires May 15. Markets will listen carefully for any signals about incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy approach. Trading Economics confirms “gradual rate cuts anticipated under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.” Any signal of future accommodation from the Warsh era is structurally gold-bullish for Q2–Q4 2026.
Key Price Levels for April 28–29
Support Levels:
$4,628 — Current price / session low
$4,517 — LiteFinance bull pivot (medium-term floor)
$4,494 — 200-Day SMA (long-term structural floor)
$4,225 — Bull invalidation level (very distant)
Resistance Levels:
$4,694 — 100-Day SMA
$4,738 — 2H 50 EMA (broken)
$4,748 — 2H 200 EMA (broken)
$4,807 — 50-Day SMA (primary post-FOMC target)
$4,912 — Fibonacci 61.8% March fall (week target)
Gold Price Forecast — April 28, 2026
Gold at $4,628 is approaching the LiteFinance bull pivot at $4,517 — the level that defines whether the medium-term uptrend remains mathematically valid. LiteFinance projects that on April 29, XAU/USD is expected to trade within the $4,645–$4,760 range. The price could move in either direction depending on the FOMC dot plot outcome.
The structural case for gold remains intact regardless of tomorrow’s decision. Gold is up 40.28% year-on-year. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect gold to fluctuate within the $4,000–$6,300 range for 2026. Central banks continue buying globally — Malaysia, South Korea, China, and Uzbekistan all added reserves in Q1 2026.
Trading Recommendation: Buy at $4,517–$4,628 zone before the FOMC. Stop loss below $4,400. Target 1: $4,807 (50-Day SMA). Target 2: $4,912 (Fibonacci 61.8%). The post-FOMC move will be too fast to enter cleanly — position before the decision, not after.
Risk Warning: Trading gold and foreign exchange carries significant risk of loss. This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
