Gold is trading at $4,615 on Monday May 4, 2026 — opening the new week under continued pressure as the US-Iran standoff shows no signs of resolution and the dollar remains elevated following last week’s hawkish FOMC tone. The session range is $4,559–$4,661, with the opening at $4,626. Lite Finance confirms that XAU/USD may continue to decline on May 4. Despite short-term headwinds, gold remains +42.39% year-on-year — one of the strongest annual performances of any major asset class. This week brings a packed data calendar that will determine whether gold can find its footing ahead of a potential May recovery: Services PMI on May 5, ADP employment change on May 6, Initial Jobless Claims on May 7, and the critical Non-Farm Payrolls report on May 8.
Today’s Key Data — May 4, 2026
| Gold Spot Price | $4,615 (Open: $4,626) |
| Day Range | $4,559 — $4,661 |
| 52-Week Range | $3,120 — $5,597 |
| YoY Gain | +42.39% (vs May 2025) |
| 50-Day SMA | $4,693 (Resistance) |
| 200-Day SMA | $4,575 (Key Support) |
| Investing.com Daily | Strong Sell |
| Investing.com Monthly | Strong Buy |
Why Gold Is Still Under Pressure — The Hawkish FOMC Legacy
The April 29 FOMC meeting removed the one remaining 2026 rate cut from the dot plot — the hawkish signal that markets feared. This pushed the dollar higher and gold lower through the final days of April. Gold prices continue to trade near recent lows, as uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and its broader impact on global inflation reinforces expectations that major central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer. The paradox that defined April continues into May: Hormuz remains closed, oil stays above $100, inflation stays elevated, but elevated inflation also keeps the Fed hawkish — which strengthens the dollar and creates short-term headwinds for non-yielding gold.
Trump has confirmed the US will maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran has pledged to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and not abandon its nuclear program. This diplomatic deadlock means the inflation shock from energy prices will persist — which is the structural stagflation case that supports gold above $4,000 in any scenario. Gold is down approximately 15% from the January 2026 all-time high of $5,595 — but remains 42.39% above May 2025 levels, confirming the long-term bull market is intact.
This Week’s Data Calendar — The Most Important Week Since FOMC
| Date | Event | Gold Impact |
| Mon May 4 | No Major Data | Dollar watch — Hormuz headlines |
| Mon May 5 | Services PMI + JOLTS Job Openings | Below 50 = stagflation signal = gold bullish |
| Wed May 6 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | Weak = stagflation confirmed = gold bullish |
| Thu May 7 | Initial Jobless Claims | Rising claims = labor weakness = Fed dovish pressure |
| Fri May 8 | NFP + Unemployment + Michigan May Inflation | Week’s most critical gold catalyst |
The NFP + Michigan Double — Friday May 8 Is the Week’s Binary Event
Friday May 8 brings two simultaneous releases: Non-Farm Payrolls for April and the University of Michigan’s May inflation expectations. These are the two most gold-relevant data points of the entire week. A weak NFP reading (below 150,000 jobs added) would signal that the Hormuz-driven inflation shock is now destroying employment — the classic stagflation proof. Michigan’s May inflation expectations following April’s 4.8% reading will confirm whether consumer inflation fears are becoming entrenched. Elevated Michigan expectations (above 4.5%) combined with weak NFP = textbook stagflation = the most gold-bullish macro data combination possible, because it creates a policy trap for the Fed: the economy needs rate cuts but inflation forbids them.
Key Price Levels for May 4
| Level | Price | Significance |
| R3 — Resistance | $4,807 | 50-Day SMA — medium-term recovery target |
| R2 — Resistance | $4,693 | 50-Day SMA (CoinCodex) — first resistance above |
| R1 — Resistance | $4,661 | Day high — immediate cap |
| CURRENT PRICE | $4,615 | Below 50-Day SMA — dollar pressure dominant |
| S1 — Support ★ | $4,575 | 200-Day SMA — structural long-term floor |
| S2 — Support | $4,559 | Day low — tested today |
| S3 — Deep Support | $4,380 | LiteFinance May 2026 lower range |
| Bull Invalidation | $4,225 | Bull thesis cancelled below this — very distant |
Three Forecast Scenarios for the Week
Scenario 1 — Stagflation Data Confirmed (35% Probability)
Services PMI below 50 + Weak NFP + High Michigan inflation expectations. Stagflation fully confirmed domestically. Dollar weakens as rate cut expectations rebuild. Gold recovers above 50-Day SMA $4,693 and targets $4,807–$4,912 by end of week. Buy $4,559–$4,615. SL $4,400. TP1 $4,693. TP2 $4,807.
Scenario 2 — Mixed Data, Dollar Holds (40% Probability)
In-line data across the week. Gold consolidates between $4,559 and $4,693. 200-Day SMA $4,575 holds as structural support. Range trade: buy $4,559–$4,580, target $4,693. May 12 CPI becomes next major catalyst.
Scenario 3 — Strong Data, Dollar Extends (25% Probability)
Strong NFP above 200K. Dollar surges. Gold breaks below 200-Day SMA $4,575. Tests $4,380 LiteFinance May lower range. Maximum buy zone for long-term investors. May 12 CPI = reversal catalyst. SL below $4,225 bull invalidation.
Gold Price Forecast — May 4, 2026
Gold at $4,615 is in a technically fragile but fundamentally grounded position. LiteFinance projects XAU/USD may continue to decline today but expects May 2026 to range between $4,380 and $5,100, with the beginning of the month projected at $5,041. Experts remain optimistic, forecasting the $5,400–$6,000 range by year-end, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank reserve accumulation. The World Gold Council confirmed central banks increased reserves in Q1 2026. This week’s data sequence — particularly the NFP+Michigan double on Friday May 8 and the CPI on May 12 — will determine whether gold’s May recovery materialises as LiteFinance projects, or whether the dollar-dominant environment extends the correction toward $4,380.
Trading Recommendation: Buy at $4,559–$4,580 (200-Day SMA zone). Stop loss below $4,400. Target 1: $4,693 (50-Day SMA). Target 2: $4,807. Hold for the Friday May 8 NFP+Michigan catalyst. The medium-term bull case — stagflation confirmed, central banks buying, +42% YoY — is unchanged. Do not short gold in a 42% YoY bull market.
Risk Warning: Trading gold and foreign exchange carries significant risk of loss. This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
