USD/CHF is trading under pressure in Asian hours on Friday, hovering near 0.8050 after pulling back from Thursday’s rebound. The US Dollar (USD) is losing traction as expectations rise that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in September, following weaker-than-expected US labor market data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign more than a 99% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) cut this month, sharply higher than 87% just a week ago.
Fresh labor data reinforced this dovish outlook. Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 237K for the week ending August 30, higher than both the previous 229K and market consensus of 230K. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Report showed private payrolls increasing by just 54,000 in August, missing estimates of 65,000 and down sharply from July’s upwardly revised 106,000, signaling slowing hiring momentum.
Attention now turns to Friday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which could provide the final cue for Fed policymakers. Economists expect the report to show around 75,000 job additions in August, with the unemployment rate projected to climb slightly to 4.3%. A weaker print would likely strengthen the case for easing.
On the other side, the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to draw support from safe-haven demand. Yields on the 10-year Swiss government bond slipped to 0.30% on Thursday, down over 5.5%, as global bond markets faced heavy selling amid rising debt concerns, sticky inflation risks, and mounting political pressure on central banks.
Looking ahead, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0% later this month. Inflation in Switzerland held steady at 0.2% in August, comfortably within the SNB’s 0–2% target range, giving policymakers little urgency to adjust rates.
