Global markets have entered a quieter phase in recent weeks, with the US dollar showing notable resilience. After earlier selloffs, the greenback has steadied, and volatility across major currency pairs has narrowed. Price action remains contained as investors wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve and watch for potential trade policy shifts out of Washington.
President Donald Trump has shifted much of his attention toward the war in Ukraine, positioning himself as a would-be global mediator. But his approach to diplomacy relies more on tariffs, pressure, and ultimatums than on compromise or balanced negotiations.
This week, Trump threatened to impose new sweeping tariffs on India and China, citing their purchases of Russian energy as a way of undermining US objectives. He argues that choking off this trade could push Vladimir Putin to negotiate. Still, after the high-profile Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, talks have stalled and progress remains elusive.
The deeper challenge lies in the wide gulf between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia demands troop withdrawals, demilitarization, regime change in Kyiv, limits on Ukraine’s military, and a pledge against NATO membership. Ukraine, meanwhile, seeks to maintain its defence forces, secure international security guarantees, pursue EU membership, and is only willing to freeze the conflict along current lines while refusing to recognize occupied territories as Russian. With such incompatible positions, the chances of a breakthrough remain slim.
EUR/USD Wave Analysis
EUR/USD continues to trend upward within its wave structure, driven largely by news tied to Trump’s trade and geopolitical actions. The pair could stretch toward the 1.25 region, with resistance levels emerging around 1.1875, aligned with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement.
GBP/USD Wave Analysis
The bullish wave pattern for GBP/USD remains intact, even amid Trump’s unpredictable policies that could add volatility. The broader upward trend is still in play, with the next Fibonacci target set near the 261.8% level. In the shorter term, momentum points toward 1.4017 as part of wave 3 of 5.
Trading Principles to Keep in Mind
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Stick to clear, simple wave structures complex ones are prone to sudden shifts.
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If uncertain, it’s better to stay out of the market than force trades.
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No analysis is ever 100% reliable protect positions with stop loss orders.
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Strengthen wave analysis by combining it with other technical and fundamental tools.
This outlook is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as financial advice.
