The euro has been pulling back from its September 17 high. With major central bank meetings now behind us and no fresh trend drivers, traders are shifting their attention to economic data. While figures like retail sales or building permits may not cause a sharp intraday move, they often set the tone for medium-term trends. This means that the muted reaction to the Fed’s rate cut could eventually translate into a broader euro decline. A key run of economic releases begins next week and may shape the pair’s direction.
For a medium-term downtrend to take hold, EUR/USD must first close below the daily MACD line at 1.1720. A further break under 1.1632 would confirm the bearish signal and pave the way toward 1.1495.
On the flip side, if buyers manage to push the pair higher, a breakout above 1.1919 the top of the current price channel would act as a bullish signal and open the door for renewed growth. At present, however, the pair is in consolidation mode, hinting at a potential bearish scenario.
On the 4-hour chart, the price recently tested support at the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has turned negative, suggesting that downward momentum is gaining traction. A firm move below 1.1763 would strengthen the case for a test of the daily MACD line, possibly as early as Monday.
