Crude oil and natural gas markets remain in focus as tightening supply dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties push energy prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has extended gains following a sharp drawdown in U.S. stockpiles, while Brent continues to consolidate within a narrowing triangle pattern. At the same time, natural gas futures struggle to find momentum, staying under key moving average resistance levels.
Market Drivers: U.S. Stockpiles and Supply Disruptions
WTI crude advanced to $63.54 per barrel after U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels, the steepest decline in seven weeks. Supply conditions tightened further as negotiations in Iraq’s Kurdistan region stalled, keeping a major pipeline to Turkey offline. This prolonged disruption adds to concerns about long-term market volatility.
Meanwhile, Chevron confirmed it will only export half of its 240,000 bpd output from Venezuela due to U.S. restrictions, reinforcing global supply constraints. Broader geopolitical risks — particularly involving refining and transport hubs continue to weigh heavily on sentiment, amplifying volatility across the energy sector.
Natural Gas (NG) Forecast
Natural gas futures trade at $2.84, struggling to gain traction below the 50-day EMA at $2.93. Sellers have defended resistance at $2.87, leaving momentum weak. The RSI near 35 signals persistent bearish pressure, though not yet oversold.
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Downside Levels: A break below $2.79 could open the door toward $2.76 and $2.70, with extended weakness targeting $2.64.
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Upside Levels: Recovery above $2.87 is required to challenge $2.94, with the 200-day EMA near $3.00 acting as a pivotal ceiling.
Until bulls reclaim control above $2.87, the short-term structure remains tilted in favour of sellers.
WTI Oil (USOIL) Forecast
WTI crude trades near $63.54, facing strong resistance at $63.78, where a descending trendline converges with the 200-day EMA. The RSI at 47 shows improving but indecisive momentum.
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Bullish Case: A breakout above $63.78 could fuel gains toward $64.76 and $65.36, marking the start of a short-term bullish reversal.
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Bearish Case: Failure to clear resistance would likely bring renewed pressure toward $62.82 and $61.86.
The broader setup remains range-bound, and traders should watch the $63.78 pivot to determine whether buyers or sellers take control.
Brent Oil (UKOIL) Forecast
Brent crude trades at $67.03, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle between $68.07 resistance and $66.16 support. The convergence of the 50-day and 200-day EMAs near $67.20 reinforces resistance, while the RSI at 46 suggests neutral momentum.
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Upside Levels: A breakout above $68.07 could spark a rally toward $68.68 and $69.54.
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Downside Levels: A breakdown below $66.16 would expose $65.07 and $64.35.
The tightening range signals an imminent breakout, with volume and RSI shifts likely confirming the direction of the next leg.
Outlook
Energy markets remain at the mercy of tightening supply chains and geopolitical tensions. While WTI and Brent crude trade near pivotal resistance levels that could determine the next breakout, natural gas remains under pressure with sellers in control. With U.S. inventories falling and Kurdish pipeline disruptions ongoing, volatility in both oil and gas markets is expected to persist in the near term.
