Fundamentals
The precious metals market continues to exhibit one of the strongest and most resilient bull runs of the past decade, with gold breaching the $4,000 mark and silver surpassing $50 without any signs of exhaustion. Over the past month, gold has surged nearly 15%, with each pullback limited to less than 2%, underscoring robust institutional accumulation and investor demand.
These psychological milestones have not triggered any meaningful corrections, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains well anchored. Renewed global uncertainty including the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade tensions has bolstered gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Although the initial reaction to these developments was subdued, capital has gradually flowed back into precious metals, as investors bet that geopolitical instability will sustain demand through 2026.
Reflecting this shift, institutional forecasts are now catching up with spot prices. On Monday, Bank of America became the first major financial house to lift its long-term forecast, predicting $5,000 for gold and $65 for silver by 2026. Meanwhile, heightened worries over elevated U.S. equity valuations and debate about a potential tech sector bubble have enhanced gold’s role as a core hedge within diversified portfolios. While these fears may be partially exaggerated, the perception of fragility across risk assets continues to support bullion’s safe-haven narrative.
Given the current market setup and macroeconomic landscape, our near-term target for gold is revised higher to $4,501, reaffirming our “Buy” rating on the metal.
Technical Analysis
Gold remains firmly in an upward structure, with its next short-term focus on the 100% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,584–$3,499 range, located at $4,252. This zone is expected to act as immediate resistance, potentially triggering modest profit-taking. A decisive close above $4,252 would pave the way toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $4,749, signalling a continuation of the bull cycle.
On the downside, initial support sits at $3,944 a break below this level could confirm a short-term top and lead to a consolidation phase. However, the long-term trend remains intact, with gold having already cleared the 261.8% projection of the $1,160 base (measured from the $1,614–$2,074 impulse) at $4,009. This technical breakout now points to the next major target at $4,923, just shy of the psychological $5,000 threshold.
The technical roadmap aligns closely with institutional outlooks, reinforcing the case for a sustained advance over the coming quarters.
Trading Recommendations
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Trading Direction: Long
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Entry Price: 4,221
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Target Price: 4,501
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Stop Loss: 4,190
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Valid Until: October 31, 2025, 23:55:00
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Support Levels: 4,203 / 4,182 / 4,164
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Resistance Levels: 4,252 / 4,279 / 4,362
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
Trading precious metals involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The strategies and opinions provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. You are solely responsible for assessing the suitability of any trading decision based on your financial objectives, experience, and risk tolerance.
