Gold Price Today News March 13 2026: Oil Hits $100 Again, 15% Global Tariff Announced — Gold Drops to $5096 Before GDP Data

Oil Surges Back Above $100 — The Hormuz Risk Returns

Brent crude oil has once again broken above the psychologically critical $100 per barrel mark, reversing the brief relief that came with Trump's "short war" comments earlier this week. The catalyst is a fresh escalation in Iran's retaliatory activities. According to Investing.com reporting on March 12–13, Iran is continuing to strike ships and oil infrastructure in the region, with marine insurance premiums rising sharply and Gulf equity markets selling off as investors cut exposure to Middle East-linked assets. The US and the International Energy Agency responded by releasing record barrels of oil from strategic reserves, but the coordinated intervention has proven insufficient to keep Brent below $100 as traders price in ongoing supply disruption risk.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply flows, remains the central pressure point. A full closure of the strait — which analysts at FX Leaders estimate could send oil to $150 per barrel — would likely cause gold prices to jump 15–25% according to the same analysis. The strait has not been fully closed, but the ongoing Iranian harassment of shipping in the region is creating a risk premium that is preventing oil from returning to pre-war levels. Every $10 increase in oil prices translates into approximately 0.3–0.4 percentage points of additional headline CPI, according to standard Federal Reserve modeling. With oil now above $100, the March CPI reading due April 10 is shaping up to be significantly hotter than February's 2.4% reading.

The 15% Global Tariff — A New Variable

The announcement by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of a 15% global tariff introduces a significant new macroeconomic variable that markets are still processing. According to RoboForex's weekly analysis, the tariff may come into effect as early as this week and is expected to remain in place for up to five months by preliminary estimates. A blanket 15% tariff on imports would have multiple simultaneous effects on the gold market. In the short term, tariff announcements typically strengthen the Dollar as they signal a more aggressive US trade stance — and a stronger Dollar creates headwinds for gold, which is priced in US Dollars and becomes more expensive for international buyers.

However, the medium-term effect of tariffs on gold is historically bullish. Tariffs raise consumer prices by increasing the cost of imported goods, contributing to inflation. They also trigger retaliatory measures from trading partners, disrupting global supply chains and creating economic uncertainty that increases safe-haven demand. The combination of the Iran war oil shock and a 15% global tariff is precisely the kind of supply-side inflationary shock that stagflation scenarios are built from. As the FX Leaders market strategist noted on March 12: gold is "the ultimate stagflation hedge" — the asset that wins when inflation rises and growth simultaneously suffers. The tariff announcement strengthens this medium-term bull case for gold even as it creates short-term Dollar-driven pressure.

This Week in Review — Gold's Journey March 9–13

Today's Data — GDP and Michigan Inflation Expectations

Two data releases today will determine gold's closing direction for the week. The GDP Second Estimate for Q4 2025 will confirm whether the US economy grew at approximately 2.1% in the final quarter of last year. This data is somewhat backward-looking — it covers a period well before the Iran war and tariff announcements. Nevertheless, a GDP miss below 1.8% would immediately raise recession concerns and be bullish for gold, while a beat above 2.4% would reinforce the economic resilience narrative that supports the Dollar. The initial advance estimate of approximately 2.3% is the base case, and any significant deviation from it will move markets.

The University of Michigan 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations index is potentially the more market-moving release. This measure captures what ordinary American consumers expect inflation to be over the next five years. It is the most forward-looking inflation gauge available, and it is the one that most directly tells the Fed whether the current inflation pressures are being internalized by the public. If consumers are now expecting 4% or 5% inflation five years out — versus the Fed's 2% target — it would represent a serious deterioration in inflation credibility that would make rate cuts politically and economically very difficult. High long-run inflation expectations have historically been among the most reliable catalysts for sustained gold price increases, as they signal that paper currency is losing its store-of-value credibility.

Looking Ahead — The Fed Meeting Changes Everything

The Stagflation Case for Gold Is Getting Stronger

Stepping back from the day-to-day volatility, the fundamental backdrop for gold is arguably becoming more bullish on a medium-term basis even as short-term price action is choppy. The Iran war has created an oil shock that will feed into March and April CPI data. The new 15% global tariff will add to consumer prices and supply chain costs. The Fed is constrained from cutting rates aggressively because inflation is not fully under control. Yet economic growth faces headwinds from energy costs, trade disruption, and the lagged effects of the current rate level. This is the stagflation recipe. Gold at $5,096 represents the market pricing in genuine uncertainty about which force — deflation from slower growth or inflation from energy and tariffs — will dominate. History is clear: in stagflation environments, gold wins. Investors who use today's pressure to establish or add to gold positions at or near $5,052 support are aligning with a powerful medium-term structural thesis, supported by the institutional consensus from JPMorgan's $6,300 target to Deutsche Bank's $6,000 target for 2026.