Weekly Chart Overview
The Australian dollar has climbed to the upper boundary of its descending channel, leaving the pair at a critical decision point. From here, two paths are possible:
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A bullish breakout, which could unlock medium-term upside, or
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A reversal lower, resuming the broader downtrend.
Currently, the Marlin oscillator shows a divergence with price action, tilting the odds toward the bearish scenario.
Daily Chart Outlook
On the daily timeframe, failure to sustain gains above the July peak at 0.6627 would be the first sign of a reversal. The Marlin oscillator already points lower, reinforcing the bearish case.
Still, an alternative upside scenario remains possible. A break above 0.6668 would invalidate the bearish signals and pave the way for renewed growth.
H4 Chart View
On the four-hour chart, a decisive move and consolidation below the MACD line (0.6610) would confirm the start of a deeper pullback.
Fundamental Driver
The real catalyst for the next big move will likely be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on September 17. Until then, AUD/USD could remain sensitive to short-term flows, but the Fed’s tone will set the medium-term direction.
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended as trading advice.
