Gold Price Forecast Today April 1 2026: XAU/USD Surges to $4723 for Fourth Straight Day as Trump Says US Leaves Iran in Two to Three Weeks

Trump's "Two to Three Weeks" — What It Actually Means for Gold

Trump's Tuesday statement represents a fundamental shift in the war's diplomatic trajectory that markets are only beginning to price in. The key elements of his remarks from the Oval Office, as reported by Reuters, CNN, and Euronews, were: the US would leave Iran within "two weeks, maybe three"; Iran does not have to reach a formal deal for the US to end its military campaign; the US has "essentially decimated" Iran; and the "hard part is done." He also told US allies to "go get your own oil" — signalling Washington's intention to disengage from the broader Hormuz security responsibility and hand it to other nations. These statements collectively suggest that Trump has decided to declare military victory and withdraw, regardless of whether a formal ceasefire agreement is in place — a dramatically different posture from the past two weeks of escalation threats and Kharg Island seizure discussions.

For gold, this shift matters enormously through three distinct channels. First, if the US withdraws in two to three weeks, the primary military pressure sustaining $102+ oil is removed and Brent falls sharply — removing the inflation-rate headwind that caused the entire March correction. Second, as oil falls, inflation expectations moderate and CME FedWatch's rate hike probability above 50% collapses back toward zero — reviving gold's rate-cut tailwind that was the engine of the January ATH run. Third, the Dollar weakens as risk appetite returns globally — Asian stocks rallied 4–6% overnight on this news — and a weaker Dollar is a direct mechanical tailwind for gold priced in USD. Bloomberg confirmed that gold held three days of gains at $4,680 after the Tuesday remarks, and has extended further toward $4,723 during today's Asian session as the implications of Trump's timeline have been digested.

Iran's President: "Necessary Will to End the War"

Pezeshkian's statement that Iran has the "necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met — especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression" represents the most conciliatory public signal from Tehran since the war began. While Iran's foreign minister Araghchi simultaneously insisted Iran is prepared for "at least six months" of war and that there are no direct negotiations with Washington, the dual-track messaging reflects an internal debate within the Iranian government between hardliners and pragmatists. Pezeshkian's "necessary will" statement — addressed directly to the head of the European Council — is a signal to Western mediators that Tehran is looking for a face-saving formula that allows it to end the war without appearing to surrender to American demands. The precondition of "guarantees to prevent repetition of aggression" is a negotiable demand — unlike Iran's earlier absolute demands for war reparations and full sanctions removal — suggesting the diplomatic gap has narrowed significantly overnight.

Key Price Levels for April 1

Today's Macro Data — ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI

Today's ADP National Employment report for March and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March are the week's first major economic data releases. The ADP report provides the private-sector employment estimate ahead of Friday's official Non-Farm Payrolls — with consensus expectations for approximately 120,000 new jobs, reflecting the economic drag from the Iran war's energy shock on US business hiring. Given that February's official payrolls shed 92,000 jobs, any ADP reading below 100,000 would reinforce the stagflation narrative and add to gold's fundamental support. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected near 49–50 — the expansion-contraction borderline — after months of deterioration driven by supply chain disruptions from the Hormuz closure and rising input costs from elevated oil. A reading below 48 would signal genuine manufacturing contraction and would add recession-risk premium to gold alongside the ongoing inflation hedge value. Both data points will be released at 8:15 AM EST (ADP) and 10:00 AM EST (ISM PMI).

Goldman Sachs Maintains $5,400 — The Structural Case Confirmed

Investing.com confirmed on April 1 that Goldman Sachs is maintaining its $5,400 year-end gold forecast, citing that "structural buying by central banks is still cruising way above 2022 pre-pandemic levels." This target, sustained through the entire March correction from $5,595 to $4,099, represents the institutional consensus that the structural gold bull market is intact and that the current correction is a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal. JPMorgan's $6,300 target and Deutsche Bank's $6,000 forecast are similarly unchanged. FX Leaders quotes Goldman Sachs saying there is a "higher floor for gold than ever before" due to central bank structural demand. From $4,723, reaching the Goldman $5,400 target by year-end requires approximately a 14% further gain — a modest move by the standards of this bull market's history, and one that becomes rapidly achievable if the Iran war ends in the two-to-three-week timeframe Trump suggested.

Gold Price Forecast for April 1 2026

Today's session is shaping up as the most bullish single day since the correction began. Gold at $4,723, up from the $4,099 bear market low, has recovered 15% in eight trading days — a recovery pace that reflects the genuine shift in the war's fundamental trajectory. TradingView analysis published today identifies gold "maintaining bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session, currently trading near a two-week high above the $4,700 psychological mark" within "a steep ascending channel characterized by consistent higher highs and higher lows." The immediate resistance zone sits at $4,797–$4,818 with the measured move target beyond at $4,837. Tonight's Trump address at 9 PM ET is the binary catalyst that will determine whether gold breaks through the $4,797–$4,818 resistance zone toward $4,863–$4,915 (confirming war-end positioning) or pulls back to the $4,662 intraday low support (if the speech disappoints expectations). The pre-speech positioning strongly favors the bullish outcome given the pre-market signals from Asian equities surging 4–6%.