Gold Price Today News April 1 2026: Trump Says US Leaves Iran in Two Weeks With or Without a Deal — Nation Address Tonight at 9 PM ET

Trump's Oval Office Statement — The Exact Words That Moved Markets

Trump's Tuesday remarks from the Oval Office were the most consequential public statement on the Iran war since the conflict began on March 2. Reported verbatim by Reuters, Euronews, and CNN, the key quotes were: "We'll be leaving very soon" and "within maybe two weeks, maybe a couple days longer to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have." On whether a deal was required: "Iran doesn't have to make a deal. It's a new regime." On the Strait of Hormuz: "Go get your own oil" — directed at US allies, signalling Washington's intent to step back from responsibility for securing the waterway. On the timeline: "Whether we have a deal or not, it's irrelevant." On Iran's capacity: "Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done." These statements collectively represent a shift from the coercive diplomacy posture of the past two weeks — where Trump threatened Kharg Island seizure and 10,000 additional troops — to a victory-declaration posture where the US has achieved its military objectives and is preparing to disengage.

Critically, Secretary of State Rubio reinforced Trump's message in a Fox News interview, stating: "We're well on our way. We are on or ahead of schedule on each of those four objectives and we can see the finish line. It's not today, it's not tomorrow but it's coming." Rubio also said the US had "largely destroyed the Iranian navy and air force" and was on track to eliminate a "significant percentage" of missile launchers and destroy Iran's missile and drone factories. The alignment between Trump and Rubio's messaging — unusual for an administration that has sent contradictory signals throughout the war — suggests a genuine strategic decision has been made to begin the exit process.

Markets React — Best Day in Nearly a Year

The "No Deal Needed" Shift — What Changed Trump's Calculation

Trump's pivot from the hardline "Iran must open Hormuz or face power plant strikes" posture of late March to the "we're leaving with or without a deal" posture of April 1 reflects several converging pressures that have altered the political calculus in Washington. First, domestic public opinion: two-thirds of Americans believe the US should work to end involvement in the Iran war quickly even if that means not achieving all stated goals, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The national average retail gasoline price crossed $4 per gallon on Monday for the first time since 2022 — a politically toxic development for any incumbent administration. Second, economic pressure: the S&P 500 had just recorded its fifth consecutive losing week, hitting seven-month lows, and the risk of tipping the US economy into recession from sustained oil above $100 was becoming increasingly concrete. Third, military assessment: CENTCOM's confirmation that the US had achieved two-thirds of its military objectives — destroying Iran's air defenses, navy, and significant portions of its missile capabilities — gave Trump a credible basis for declaring mission accomplished without appearing to capitulate.

The "no deal needed" framing is also strategically elegant for Trump's domestic audience: it allows him to claim total victory (Iran is "decimated," the "hard part is done") while simultaneously removing the pressure of having to extract specific concessions from an adversary that has publicly refused to negotiate. Iran's Hormuz status — which Trump can now frame as "another country's problem" — is handed off to allies and the UN. Whether this represents genuine strategic success or a face-saving retreat will be debated for years, but for markets, the outcome is the same: the war is ending, oil will fall, and gold's monetary environment will shift dramatically.

Tonight's Trump Address — The Moment Markets Are Waiting For

The White House announcement that Trump will address the nation at 9 PM ET "to provide an important update on Iran" is the single most market-sensitive event of the entire war. Based on Trump's Tuesday remarks, the address is expected to either formally announce a ceasefire with Iran or declare the end of active US military operations with a specific withdrawal timeline. Rubio's statement that Washington is "on or ahead of schedule" and "can see the finish line" on all four military objectives — combined with Iran's president signalling "necessary will" to end the conflict — strongly suggests the speech will announce the end of major US military operations, if not a full ceasefire. For gold specifically, a ceasefire or withdrawal announcement tonight would trigger: oil falling $15–$25 per barrel immediately, rate-hike probability collapsing from above 50% back toward 10–15%, Dollar weakening against major currencies, and gold's January ATH recovery thesis reactivating at full strength. The path from $4,723 to Goldman Sachs' $5,400 year-end target is approximately 14% — a move that history suggests can be accomplished in four to six weeks once the fundamental headwinds reverse.

Goldman Sachs $5,400 Target — Why It Was Never in Doubt

Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain its $5,400 year-end gold target throughout the entire March correction — from $5,238 through the $4,099 bear market low and back up to $4,723 — was the single most important institutional signal of the entire episode. The target's survival through the worst gold month in a century (Brent gained a record 64% in March; gold fell 14% in the same period) reflects Goldman's conviction that the structural drivers of the gold bull market — central bank reserve diversification, de-dollarization, geopolitical risk premium, and eventual Fed rate cuts — are intact and will reassert themselves once the acute oil-inflation-rate headwind from the Iran war moderates. FX Leaders quotes Goldman noting that "structural buying by central banks is still cruising way above 2022 pre-pandemic levels." From $4,723, the $5,400 target requires a 14.3% gain over the remaining nine months of 2026 — a pace of approximately 1.5% per month, far below gold's historical average monthly gain during bull market recovery phases.