Crude oil prices started the week slightly higher but quickly lost momentum after facing resistance at the 200-day moving average around $63.00. The failure at this level pushed futures back toward Friday’s low of $62.20. If prices break below this point, it would confirm a three-day losing streak and expose further downside targets at $61.34, $61.10, and $60.77.
To shift the outlook, bulls need a clear move above $63.00, followed by resistance at the 50-day moving average near $63.71 and a key pivot level at $64.21. Until then, crude oil remains under technical pressure.
Geopolitical Factors Offer Limited Support
Tensions in Europe increased as Russia carried out strikes near Poland’s border, triggering NATO aircraft deployments. Reports of Russian jets violating NATO airspace in Estonia and Germany added to concerns. The UN Security Council will discuss the situation, but so far, these developments have provided only modest support to crude prices.
In the Middle East, fresh uncertainty emerged after several Western nations recognized a Palestinian state. The move drew strong criticism from Israel and sparked fears of rising regional instability. Traders remain alert for any signs of supply disruptions, but the impact has not been enough to counter market weakness.
Supply Pressure from Iraq and OPEC+
Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO reported exports of 3.38 million barrels per day in August, with September volumes expected to climb to 3.45 million bpd. The increase highlights the rollback of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts, adding more barrels to an already heavy market.
Analysts also point to elevated inventories as a drag on price recovery. While stock builds in the U.S. and China’s reserves have absorbed part of the surplus, oversupply continues to weigh on near-term demand outlooks.
Oil Price Forecast
As long as crude stays below the 200-day moving average near $63.00, the bias remains bearish. Rising Iraqi output and high inventories limit upside potential, while geopolitical risks have failed to generate lasting momentum. A confirmed break under $62.20 would strengthen the bearish case and point toward deeper declines.
