Gold prices moved close to a new all-time high at $3,708 per ounce following the announcement of a U.S. interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The decision was passed by an 11-to-1 vote, with Governor Steven Miran favoring a larger 50-basis-point cut. The Fed pointed to slower job growth and persistent inflation, showing risks remain for both employment and price stability.
Since the start of 2025, gold prices have risen nearly 41%, supported by strong central bank purchases, safe-haven demand, and a weaker U.S. Dollar. However, after hitting record highs, profit-taking drove prices toward $3,650 per ounce on Thursday. Despite this dip, the upward trend remains strong, with indicators flashing overbought conditions.
US Dollar Reaction to Fed Policy
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply to its lowest level since 2022 but later recovered to trade near 97.00. Traders adjusted to the Fed’s first rate cut of the year, which also included signals for an additional 50 basis points of easing before year-end. This outlook was slightly more dovish than expected in June.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a “risk management cut” rather than the start of a deep easing cycle. Inflation risks, he noted, have eased since April. Steven Miran’s push for a larger cut showed that the Fed is divided, though the overall tone leaned more cautious than markets expected.
Trading Tips
It is wise to track market moves closely and wait for a clearer pullback in gold prices before entering new buy positions. Strong support lies around $3,645–$3,650, while the upside target remains at $3,700–$3,708.
Gold Outlook in the Coming Days
Gold remains supported by the Fed’s shift in policy, ongoing global risks, and steady central bank demand. The Fed’s dot plot projections point to one more cut this year, two in 2026, and another in 2027. This signals a longer easing cycle than previously expected, with the federal funds rate projected to fall to 3.6% by year-end.
Beyond monetary policy, factors such as geopolitical tensions, slowing U.S. job growth, central bank bullion buying, and a weaker dollar are likely to keep gold attractive. If buyers defend support levels and momentum persists, gold may soon retest its record highs and possibly break above $3,708.
Today’s Gold (XAU/USD) Trading Signals
Sell Signal
Sell from $3710 (resistance)
Target: $3580
Stop-loss: $3770
Buy Signal
Buy from $3560 (support)
Target: $3740
Stop-loss: $3520
