The EUR/USD pair extended its rally on Tuesday, showing stronger gains compared to the previous sessions. Interestingly, the move was not driven by economic reports, as both European and US data failed to impress traders. Even though US retail sales and industrial production beat expectations, the dollar weakened throughout the day.
The euro’s rise was not a surprise as technical analysis continues to support upward movement on multiple timeframes. The dollar, weighed down by global fundamentals, struggles to maintain sustainable growth, only managing temporary corrections. With the Federal Reserve meeting set for Wednesday, the risk of further dollar weakness grows if the Fed’s statement carries even a slightly dovish tone.
On the 5-minute chart, several signals were generated yesterday. The pair bounced from the 1.1750–1.1760 zone overnight, creating a good opportunity for long positions during the European session. Later, the 1.1846–1.1857 range was reached and broken in the US session, confirming bullish continuation.
The latest COT report as of September 9 shows non-commercial traders maintaining a bullish stance, adding long positions while cutting shorts. Overall, the net position increased by 6,100 contracts, signalling consistent optimism toward the euro.
EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis
The hourly chart confirms a steady uptrend, with Tuesday’s momentum strengthening further. On the daily timeframe, the broader uptrend of 2025 is now firmly in place, opening room for a potential 500–600 pip rise. The dollar remains under pressure from both economic and political uncertainties, with no clear signs of recovery ahead.
Key levels to watch on September 17 are 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. The Ichimoku lines Senkou Span B (1.1694) and Kijun-sen (1.1766)—are also important for identifying trend support. Traders are advised to move Stop Loss to breakeven once the trade moves 15 pips in their favour to minimize risks.
Market Events to Watch
On Wednesday, the eurozone will release final inflation data for August, along with another speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde, although neither is expected to create major moves. The focus will be on the Fed’s decision in the evening, which could drive volatility and sharp reversals.
Trading Recommendations
Long positions remain favourable with targets at 1.1894, 1.1922, and 1.1971–1.1988. Short positions are not advisable at this stage, as the bullish trend remains intact. Traders should stay alert for volatility around the Fed announcement.
