The euro (EUR/USD) is currently trading around 1.1803, positioned just above the 38 SMA but still below the +1/8 Murray level, suggesting a mildly positive bias while also showing signs of exhaustion. After a four-day technical correction, the pair managed to rebound from the 8/8 Murray support level at 1.1718, which provided the strength for its latest recovery. However, the euro now faces a strong resistance near 1.1840, aligning with the +1/8 Murray level. This resistance zone is likely to limit further gains unless buyers can secure a firm consolidation above it.
If the euro fails to maintain its momentum and breaks below the uptrend channel formed since July 28, followed by a consolidation under the 8/8 Murray level, bearish pressure could increase significantly. In such a scenario, EUR/USD might decline first toward the 7/8 Murray level at 1.1596 and, if weakness persists, extend its fall toward the 200 EMA located around 1.1386.
On the flip side, if bulls succeed in pushing the price above 1.1840 and sustaining it, the bullish bias could resume. In that case, the pair may climb toward the +2/8 Murray level at 1.1962, with the psychological barrier of 1.20 serving as an ultimate target in the short term.
Currently, the Eagle Indicator is flashing a negative signal, warning that upside potential remains limited as long as the euro trades below 1.1840. Therefore, any rebound toward this resistance zone could present an opportunity for selling rather than buying, keeping short positions favorable until a clear breakout occurs.
