Donald Trump’s persistence shows no signs of fading as he doubles down on efforts to pressure Kyiv and Moscow into a truce. His strategy hinges on restricting Russia’s access to cash, particularly from oil and gas exports, with the goal of starving the Kremlin of funds to prolong the war. Whether such measures can truly shift Moscow’s stance is debatable, as Russia has repeatedly stressed that sanctions alone won’t alter its objectives.
Trump’s latest push for new tariffs raises fresh questions. Not only does he want to expand levies on India and China, but he also expects the European Union to align with Washington on these measures. This is despite his previous tariffs targeting the EU and a trade deal that largely favoured the US over Europe.
It’s a win-win narrative for Trump:
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If Europe resists, he can claim he did everything possible but was blocked by EU hesitation.
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If tariffs are introduced, even partially, Washington secures additional revenue.
Yet, this balancing act underscores his limited influence—parallels can be drawn with his repeated pressure campaigns on the Federal Reserve. For Trump, retreating is not an option. A reversal would cost him politically, making him look like a leader who promised but failed to deliver. That’s why markets should expect ongoing pressure on the FOMC, China, India, and Russia. His dual narrative—economic reformer and peace negotiator remains a cornerstone of his strategy, even if someone else ultimately reaps the recognition, perhaps even the Nobel Peace Prize.
Wave Outlook for EUR/USD
The EUR/USD continues to develop within an upward wave structure, heavily influenced by news surrounding Trump’s policies and broader geopolitical decisions. The current wave target lies near 1.25, with intermediate levels to watch around 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) and beyond. Long positions remain the working scenario, provided the supportive news backdrop holds.
Wave Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD maintains its impulsive bullish structure, with markets bracing for shocks and volatility stemming from Trump’s policy decisions. The upward momentum remains intact, with targets pointing toward the 261.8% Fibonacci extension, around 1.4017, as wave 3 of 5 unfolds.
Core Analytical Guidelines
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Keep wave structures simple and transparent complicated patterns are more prone to sudden shifts.
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Stay out of the market if confidence is low patience is also a strategy.
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Accept that no forecast offers 100% certainty; always use protective Stop Loss orders.
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Combine wave analysis with other tools and strategies for more balanced decision-making.
This market outlook is intended for awareness and education, not as a direct trading signal.
