The Euro continues to consolidate, holding within Thursday’s range through Friday and into this morning’s session. Since September 8, the pair has been coiling around the MACD line, which maintains a slight downward slope. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator is edging lower, even while staying in positive territory a sign of weakening momentum.
Market Context
EUR/USD remains under pressure as traders await this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. A similar sideways mood is evident in the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields, highlighting the market’s cautious stance.
Our baseline outlook continues to favour further downside for the euro. While a rate cut from the Fed is widely expected, policymakers are also likely to strike a hawkish tone signalling that three cuts by year-end are unlikely, and even a second cut remains uncertain. This is largely due to the lingering inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs, which has yet to be fully absorbed.
Technical Levels to Watch
Key downside targets remain unchanged at:
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1.1632
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1.1495
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1.1392
The market could find fresh momentum tomorrow as Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment and US Retail Sales data are released.
Short-Term View (H4 Chart)
On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD is confined to a 1.1700–1.1748 range, defined by the MACD line at the lower bound and Friday’s high at the upper. The Marlin oscillator is carving out a wedge pattern pointing downward, hinting that the pair may attempt to hold below 1.1700 in the near term.
This analysis is intended to build awareness and provide insight into market dynamics. It is not trading advice.
